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The possibility has emerged that the International Space Station (ISS) may be left unmanned for a period of time if launch problems with the Russian Soyuz rockets cannot be rectified soon.

Earlier this month, 24th August 2011, saw the crash soon after launch from Kazakhstan of an unmanned Soyuz carrying food and fuel to the ISS, following the failure of one of the booster rockets. The Russian Space Agency Roscosmos has delayed the next manned mission by at least a month to allow time for safety checks to be carried out, and it is likely that at least two test launches of an unmanned rocket will be conducted before sending anymore astronauts up.

 The delay means that replacement crew will not go to the ISS until late October at the earliest, assuming that all goes well with the testing. The station is currently manned by a team of 6, with 3 likely to return to Earth in mid September and a decision needing to be made about the remaining crew.

Alexei Krasnov, head of manned flights at Roscosmos recently indicated that: 'If for any reason we will not be able to deliver the crew before the end of November, we will need to review all possibilities including leaving the station unmanned.'

The ISS has been continuously manned for more than a decade. It can in fact be flown without a crew if needed, though this is not an ideal situation as repairs can be made and problems fixed faster with crew members onboard, reducing the possibilities of major damage occurring. 

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With the final flight of NASA's shuttle Atlantis due to take place later this week, it will bring with it an end to the capability of the USA to send its own astronauts into Space. I'm sure it is going to be a very sad day for many when Atlantis makes its final landing after a 12 day mission to the International Space Station (ISS), and many people I am sure will be left shaking their heads in disappointment. 
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The US will now be reliant on Russia for future astronaut transportation to the ISS until such time as privately developed commercial crew transport becomes available, hopefully in the next few years but with no guarantees as to time scale. Quite coincidentally today I came across this graphic which shows the yearly cost per seat the US will have to pay on board the Russian Soyuz capsules. According to Charlie Bolden, current Nasa Administrator, the price is going up due to inflation and not because the Russians are taking advantage of their monopoly. Perhaps true, but inflation would seem to be very high at the moment! 
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Russian Soyuz TMA-21 named after Yuri Gagarin
The docking of a soyuz spaceship with the International Space Station is not in itself anything out of the ordinary these days.

However, the soyuz that successfully docked in the early hours of this morning (7 April 02:13UT) is officially named in tribute to Yuri Gagarin and the fiftieth anniversary of the flight of the first man in Space.

And rather fittingly, the soyuz blasted off from the same launch pad, Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan that was used 50 years ago for the historic event on 12th April 1961. 
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China's Shenzhou 7 rocket
With USA space shuttles going into retirement next year 2011, this leaves Russia as the only country currently capable of delivering crews to the International Space Station via their Soyuz capsules. Although the Russians have proven to be very reliable and thus far have a good safety record, this places a huge workload on their shoulders, so is it not always a good idea to have a Plan B just in case?

According to Russian space officials, Chinese spaceships meet all safety requirements and could fly to the ISS.

"I think Chinese spaceships would play an important role as a backup for the Russian vessels Soyuz and Progress in case of some unforeseen situations," said Anatoli Perminov, head of the Russian space agency Roskosmos, recently. 

Perminov also repeated an earlier claim that five space agencies currently involved in running the ISS had invited China to become involved and were awaiting a reply on this proposal.

NASA has however issued a statement saying that China has not been formally asked to join the 15-nation program, but that ‘discussions were taking place about joint space efforts’.

Could it not be time to put aside the old rivalries and distrust and to globalize space research and travel?  
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An unmanned Russian supply ship carrying much needed food, water and supplies to the International Space Station managed to successfully dock with the orbiting laboratory this Sunday, 4th July 2010, two days late after the first attempt didn’t go quite as planned.

The Progress cargo ship was supposed to have hooked up with the ISS on Friday, but the procedure failed because of interference caused by an activated transmitter for the manual rendezvous system, which overrode the automated system. According to Russian station commander Alexander Skvortsov, this meant that Progress was rotating uncontrollably as it drew near the ISS and so the docking procedure was aborted – though both NASA and Russian officials said that the ship was never out of their control.

The Progress ships have been the backbone of Russia's unmanned cargo ship program for many years now, and their importance will only increase as the U.S. space shuttle program comes to an end next year.

Currently, the space station has 3 Russian and 3 U.S. astronauts aboard as it orbits around 220 miles (350 kilometers) above the Earth.
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Russian soyuz space craft
According to the Associated Press, the cost of thumbing a ride up to the International Space Station (ISS) just went up to nearly $56 million per astronaut.

This is the price that NASA will have to pay ($55.8 million to be precise) per astronaut, from 2013 to 2014 for 6  of them to be transported up to the ISS via Russian Soyuz capsules.

Currently NASA only pays $26.3 million for each astronaut taken up by the Russians, but with the US shuttles due to go into retirement by the end of this year, future missions will depend on the Soyuz for delivery of manpower.

NASA has already agreed to pay $51 million per seat for 2011 and 2012, with the increase in price being needed for the construction of extra Soyuz capsules to meet the increased demand for flights.
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